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"I'll be sitting in the same position by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer declared, joking that if the conversation proceeded smoothly, he might welcome the interviewer into Number 10 for another conversation in the coming year.

There is never any break for those in the top job. In the hour before the interview began, Starmer had been on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to understand precisely had transpired in Venezuela, where his close political chum, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

When our lengthy talk, which was much longer than normal, had ended, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Reboot for the New Year

As the year commences, the Prime Minister appears to have had a kind of a reboot. Maybe even just a little downtime with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

This seemed to have put him in improved morale than at the sluggish conclusion of 2025, a terrible year politically for him.

Yet, are he and his allies being unrealistic if they think his standing are poised to turn around?

Internal Doubts

The grisly truth for the PM is that many of his party members believe he's ineffective at his job. Some of them would sooner gamble and oust him in 2026.

But Starmer was rejecting the idea in the interview on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he told me he'd be "evaluated at the next election", insisting no one would strip his electoral mandate from him – despite the fact that the optimal path of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 might be for Labour to change leader.

"This is the battle of our times and I intend to lead us," he said.

The Spring Test

The problem for the prime minister is that he will be judged far sooner than then – in a mega set of elections in May throughout the UK. He attempted to contend, perhaps too much, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

Accurate – in part. But even though he may not want to admit it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir implying that there were no circumstances under which he would walk away, even if a his colleagues ran against him for the job, if those elections be catastrophic for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He sought to account for his low poll ratings by saying the electorate was understandably eager for things to change. He sought to persuade me, and the public, that this year would be distinct.

The economy would strengthen in the face of rising unemployment, he claimed, when strategies the government enacted during their first turbulent year began to take effect.

• He committed to close asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, although he wouldn't set a firm date on that.
• He added too, with the proviso that it was not a done deal, that a settlement in Ukraine felt closer now than at any time since Russia's full-scale invasion.
• He disclosed for the first occasion that Western allies were now talking about how to coordinate US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to protect a potential peace.

His central message is that this year the country will "reach a turning point".

Political Challenges

The PM may have communicated with renewed vitality than I've seen from him for a while – calmer, perhaps, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite facing calls from various quarters for a more decisive approach, with increased political direction, more vigour, more pace and more urgency, his points were repeated ones.

Given that he is in this much political difficulty, should he consider a different script?

No government, and certainly not one that has been unpopular for an extended period, gets everything its own way.

The Prime Minister's challenges are not only because governing is challenging, but because he and his colleagues have made mistakes, even in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The PM expressed regret that he regretted saying he was "happy" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an controversy when statements he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Starmer blamed "the process" for not catching what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting obvious political perils as the year progresses. His close relationship with the US president acquires a new risk after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over his career, the notion he would be at ease with these events seems far-fetched.

International Law and Brexit

He told me he was a "lifelong champion of international law" but the public "just do not have the full picture at the moment".

Opponents called for him to criticise the action before we spoke. And the government is expected to face further scrutiny to give an clear view in Parliament in the next few days.

There has also consistently been growing desire in the Labour party to undo or remake some of the outcomes of Brexit.

Sir Keir rejects he's heading in that direction, but his new firmer commitment to integrate further with the EU's single market – the giant economic European market – will likely trigger protests that he is breaking his promise never to try to undo the choices that followed Brexit.

A move to cosy up to more of the single market will satisfy a faction on his own side, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to